What Does EV Mean in Betting? – Expected Value Explained

EV betting

Expected Value (EV) in betting measures potential profit or loss over time. It helps bettors make smarter decisions by assessing the value of wagers. 

Have you ever noticed how some bettors seem to win consistently at betting while most of us lose money?

The difference often comes down to a simple math concept called Expected Value Betting (EV).

While most punters place bets based on their gut feeling or favorite teams, smart bettors use EVs to spot bets that are likely to make money.

Think of EV as your betting GPS- It helps you find bets that could boost your cumulative profits.

Want to know how this simple but powerful concept can improve a bettor’s game?

Stick to this blog till the end!

What Is The Expected Value in Sports Betting?

EV sports betting predicts whether you’ll make or lose money on a bet over the long run.

It compares your estimated true probability of an event against the bookmaker’s odds.

When you spot opportunities where your calculated probability is higher than the bookmaker’s, you’ve found a value bet.

To be precise, if you were to make the same bet over and over again, would you make money or lose money?

That’s what EV betting tells you!

Let’s understand this in two ways:

1) Simple example:

Your friend offers you a coin flip bet:

  • If it lands heads, you win $120
  • If it lands tails, you lose $100
  • Each outcome has a 50% chance

The math:

EV= (Chance of winning x Amount you win) – (Chance of losing x Amount you lose)

EV= (0.5 x $120) – (0.5 x $100)

EV= ($60 – $50)

EV= + $10

This $10 EV means that, on average, you’ll profit $10 every time you make this bet over the long run.

2) EV Sports Betting Example:

Let’s say you are betting on a football match:

  • Bookmaker Odds: 2.00 (50% chance according to a bookmaker)
  • Your research shows the team has a 60% chance of winning
  • Your bet $100

The Math:

EV= (0.60 x $100)- (0.40 x $100)

EV= $60 – $40

EV= +$20

When your EV is positive (+), it’s a good bet. When it’s negative, stay miles away from that bet.

Simple as that!

Insider Tipℹ️

The agenda is finding bets where you think the real probability is better than the bookmaker thinks. That’s where the value lies.

Why Is Expected Value (EV) Crucial In Betting?

Expected value is the mathematical edge that separates winners from losers in the betting market. Here’s why it matters the most:

1) Identifies Profitable Bets

EV betting helps you find bets where you have a real advantage.

It’s like having a calculator that shows which bets are worth your money.

When the bookmaker’s odds don’t match the true chances of something happening, EV helps you spot these money-making opportunities.

2) Focuses On Long-term Success

EV helps long-term profit by focusing on the average expected outcome of each decision rather than individual results.

When you consistently choose options with positive expected value, you’ll make more money than you lose over time.

By consistently finding bets where the potential rewards are greater than the chances of losing, bettors can gain a long-term advantage and increase their chances of making money consistently.

3) Reduces Emotional Decision-making

EV betting uses pure math to make betting decisions.

You don’t bet based on feelings, hunches, or stress. The numbers tell you exactly when to bet and pass, keeping your decisions clear and logical.

4) Maximizes Bankroll Efficiency

EV tells you how much money to put on each bet.

You’ll know where to place bigger bets – on good opportunities and small bets on riskier ones.

This helps your betting money last longer and grow steadily.

5) Helps Avoid Negative ROI

EV clearly shows which bets will lose you money over time.

It helps you skip bad bets like complicated parlays or misleading sportsbook bonus offers.

You’ll spot and avoid bets that seem good but actually cost you money.

Positive VS. Negative EV: What Does It Mean?

Comparison Of Positive EV & Negative EV

Comparing Positive EV & Negative EV

Positive Expected Value (+EV)

When you find a bet where you have better chances of winning than what the odds show.

It’s like finding a betting opportunity where you’ll make more money than you’ll lose in the long run.

The major things to know about positive EV bets are:

  • Your research shows better chances of winning than what the betting odds represent.
  • Even if you lose some bets, you’ll make money if you keep betting in these situations.
  • If you know a team has a 65% chance to win, but the odds suggest they only have a 50% chance, you’ve found +EV.

Negative Expected Value (-EV)

These are bets where your real chances of winning are worse than what the odds suggest. These bets will eat away at your money because:

  • The odds in sports betting make the bets look better than it really is.
  • Keep making these bets and your money will slowly disappear.
  • Casino games, multi-team parlays, and fancy-looking promotion bets.

Here’s an example of a Negative EV bet:

Betting $100 on Black in Roulette:

  • 18/38 chance (47.37%) to win $100
  • 20/38 chance (52.63%)  to lose $100

EV betting calculation:

(47.37% x $100) + (52.63% x -$100)

=- $5.26

For every $100 bet, players can expect to lose $5.26 on average in the long run.

The negative EV exists because the odds of winning (18/38) are lower than the payout odds (1:1)

This house edge ensures that while you might win sometimes in the short run, you’ll mathematically lose money over many spins.

Understanding The Link Between Vigorish And Negative EV

Vigorish (Vig) is a commission that bookmakers charge on bets, which creates a negative expected value for bettors.

This means that over time, the mathematics of betting ensures most bettors will lose money.

Standard sports betting odds of -110 require bettors to risk $110 to win $100.

The vig ensures bookmakers profit regardless of outcome distribution.

At -110 odds, bettors must win 52.4% of bets to break even.

Any win rate below this results in losses due to the vig creating negative EV.

Real Betting Scenario:

Your $1,100 bankroll on ten $110 bets:

  • 5 winning bets: +$500
  • 5 losing bets: -$500
  • Net result: $50
  • Per bet loss: $5

Bookmakers vary their vig between markets and events, typically ranging from 2% to 10%.

Higher vig increases the required percentage needed to overcome the negative EV.

For instance, a vig of 10% means you might need to win 55% of your bets just to break even.

Sports betting has a built-in commission (called “vig”) that makes it mathematically hard to make money.

Even if you are good at picking winners, you first have to overcome these extra costs before you can profit.

Strategies To Maximize Positive Expected Value In Betting

Strategies To Boost Positive EV

Maximize Positive EV With These Strategies

Finding good value isn’t just about luck. It requires smart thinking, self-control, and knowledge of how betting works. Here are the best ways to spot and take advantage of valuable bets.

1) Identify overpriced odds

Smart bettors look for times when bookies get their math wrong.

Let’s say they price a tennis player at 2.50. This means the player has a 40% chance of winning.

But after looking at past matches and stats, a bettor figures out she actually has a 50% chance.

That’s a great betting opportunity right there.

Good bettors use simple math tools and past game data to find these mistakes, comparing what they think will happen versus what the bookies think.

2) Employ the Kelly criterion for bet sizing

The Kelly formula helps bettors decide how much money to risk.

Here’s how it works:

If a bettor has $1000 and finds a bet where they have a 5% advantage (like something with a 55% chance of winning that pays even money), the Kelly math says to bet $50.

But most smart bettors play it safe and bet less, maybe $25 to protect their money.

This way, a string of losses won’t wipe them out.

3) Monitor market movements and closing line value

Sharp bettors pay attention to how betting odds change before a game starts.

If they bet on a team at 2.10 and by game time the odds drop to 1.90, that’s a good sign. It means they have better odds than most people.

4) Conduct thorough research and analysis

Good bettors look at everything, not just who’s winning or losing.

They check if players are hurt, how much rest teams got, how teams played against each other before, and their playing styles.

For example, in soccer- if a defensive team plays an attacking team in the rain, the defensive team might have an edge.

Weather, referees, and how teams are playing lately all matter.

5) Focus on long-term profitability

Some bettors don’t worry about winning or losing single bets.

They look at how they are doing over many months.

If they are winning 53% of their bets at -110 odds, they are making money in the long run, even if they lose sometimes.

They keep careful notes about every bet they make, writing down the odds and why they made each bet.

6) Use Arbitrage and hedging

Clever bettors sometimes bet on both teams at different bookies to guarantee profit.

Here’s an example:

If one bookie has Team A at 2.10 and another has Team B at 2.20 in a game where someone must win, betting on both teams makes money no matter what.

They also protect their wins by sometimes betting against themselves later, especially with future bets that are looking good.

7) Focus on undervalued markets

Focusing on an undervalued online sports betting market can be a great move that most people ignore.

Minor league baseball, lower-level soccer, or specific player stats often have better opportunities than bigger games.

For example, betting on Korean football games happening at 3 AM might be more profitable than NFL games where tons of people are betting and the odds are tight.

6 Most Common Misconceptions About EV Betting

Many people who bet think they know what makes a winning wager, but they are often wrong about expected value (EV) betting. Let’s clear up some common mistakes that cost bettors money.

#Misconception 1: Positive EV Bets Always Win

Many bettors believe positive EV betting guarantees winning bets, but that’s not how it works.

Even when you’ve found a great betting value, you can still lose.

A bet with a 60% win probability means you’ll lose 40% of the time.

Good value betting is about winning more than losing over hundreds of bets, not about winning every single time.

#Misconception 2: EV Betting Only Works For Underdogs

A common mistake is thinking that value only exists in underdog bets.

Value can be found anywhere, the odds don’t match reality.

A heavy favorite at -200 could be great value if their true odds should be -300.

Smart bettors look for value across all odds ranges, not just in big underdogs with flashy payouts.

#Misconception 3: EV Is Easy To Calculate

While the EV betting formula is simple math, finding true probabilities is complex.

You need to consider team statistics, injuries, weather, matchups, historical data, and countless other factors.

Many bettors oversimplify this process and end up with inaccurate probability estimates, leading to poor betting decisions despite understanding EV basics.

#Misconception 4: All Betting Sites Have The Same Odds

Different sportsbooks often have different odds on the same event.

A team might be -150 at one book but -130 at another.

These differences create opportunities for value betting.

Professional bettors often have accounts at multiple books specifically to find and exploit these odds differences.

#Misconception 5: EV Betting Means No Losing Streaks

Even perfect EV betting can’t prevent losing streaks.

If you are betting with a 55% win rate, you could still lose 10 bets in a row– it’s rare but possible.

Understanding this helps maintain discipline during downswings.

Many good bettors quit because they do not expect or prepare for losing streaks.

Wrapping Up…

Understanding EV in the online sports betting industry is like having a roadmap to smarter betting decisions.

It helps you spot good bets, avoid bad ones, and manage your money better.

While it won’t make you win every time, it turns random betting into a more calculated approach.

Don’t chase losses or bets with your emotions.

Instead, trust the math, stick to your strategy, and focus on finding true value. Combine good EV strategies with various bonuses and further expand your profit margins.

Make EV betting your compass but combine it with good research and disciplined betting habits.

That’s how successful bettors stay ahead of the game.

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FAQs

  • Can EV be used in all types of betting?

    Yes, you can use EV for any kind of bet- whether you’re betting on who wins, by how much they’ll win, or special bets like player performance. EV helps find good bets no matter what type you offer.

  • How does a bookmaker use EV to set odds?

    Bookmakers use EVs to figure out what odds to offer. They look at how likely things are going to happen, then add their profit margin to ensure they make money in the long run.

  • How does understanding EV help a betting business?

    Betting companies use EVs to set fair odds and protect their profits. It helps them run their business better while still making money.

  • Why is Expected Value Important for Sports Bettors?

    EV helps bettors make smart choices. It shows which bets are worth making and which ones to avoid. They help win more money over time instead of just guessing.

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What Does EV Mean in Betting? – Expected Value Explained

Palak Madan

Palak Madan is a enthusiastic writer at PieGaming. With over 2+years of experience crafting engaging content and a strong literature background, Palak brings a unique perspective to the world of words. Her ability to blend creativity with strategic thinking has made her a sought-after content creator. She's eager to dive deep into the intricacies of iGaming software, uncovering the stories behind the technology and translating complex features into compelling narratives.

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