Expected Value (EV) in betting measures potential profit or loss over time. It helps bettors make smarter decisions by assessing the value of wagers.
Have you ever noticed how some bettors seem to win consistently at betting while most of us lose money?
The difference often comes down to a simple math concept called Expected Value Betting (EV).
While most punters place bets based on their gut feeling or favorite teams, smart bettors use EVs to spot bets that are likely to make money.
Think of EV as your betting GPS- It helps you find bets that could boost your cumulative profits.
Want to know how this simple but powerful concept can improve a bettor’s game?
Stick to this blog till the end!
EV sports betting predicts whether you’ll make or lose money on a bet over the long run.
It compares your estimated true probability of an event against the bookmaker’s odds.
When you spot opportunities where your calculated probability is higher than the bookmaker’s, you’ve found a value bet.
To be precise, if you were to make the same bet over and over again, would you make money or lose money?
That’s what EV betting tells you!
Let’s understand this in two ways:
Your friend offers you a coin flip bet:
The math:
EV= (Chance of winning x Amount you win) – (Chance of losing x Amount you lose)
EV= (0.5 x $120) – (0.5 x $100)
EV= ($60 – $50)
EV= + $10
This $10 EV means that, on average, you’ll profit $10 every time you make this bet over the long run.
Let’s say you are betting on a football match:
The Math:
EV= (0.60 x $100)- (0.40 x $100)
EV= $60 – $40
EV= +$20
When your EV is positive (+), it’s a good bet. When it’s negative, stay miles away from that bet.
Simple as that!
Insider Tipℹ️
The agenda is finding bets where you think the real probability is better than the bookmaker thinks. That’s where the value lies. |
Expected value is the mathematical edge that separates winners from losers in the betting market. Here’s why it matters the most:
EV betting helps you find bets where you have a real advantage.
It’s like having a calculator that shows which bets are worth your money.
When the bookmaker’s odds don’t match the true chances of something happening, EV helps you spot these money-making opportunities.
EV helps long-term profit by focusing on the average expected outcome of each decision rather than individual results.
When you consistently choose options with positive expected value, you’ll make more money than you lose over time.
By consistently finding bets where the potential rewards are greater than the chances of losing, bettors can gain a long-term advantage and increase their chances of making money consistently.
EV betting uses pure math to make betting decisions.
You don’t bet based on feelings, hunches, or stress. The numbers tell you exactly when to bet and pass, keeping your decisions clear and logical.
EV tells you how much money to put on each bet.
You’ll know where to place bigger bets – on good opportunities and small bets on riskier ones.
This helps your betting money last longer and grow steadily.
EV clearly shows which bets will lose you money over time.
It helps you skip bad bets like complicated parlays or misleading sportsbook bonus offers.
You’ll spot and avoid bets that seem good but actually cost you money.
Read More – Complete Guide to Turnkey Sportsbook Solutions
When you find a bet where you have better chances of winning than what the odds show.
It’s like finding a betting opportunity where you’ll make more money than you’ll lose in the long run.
The major things to know about positive EV bets are:
These are bets where your real chances of winning are worse than what the odds suggest. These bets will eat away at your money because:
Here’s an example of a Negative EV bet:
Betting $100 on Black in Roulette:
EV betting calculation:
(47.37% x $100) + (52.63% x -$100)
=- $5.26
For every $100 bet, players can expect to lose $5.26 on average in the long run.
The negative EV exists because the odds of winning (18/38) are lower than the payout odds (1:1)
This house edge ensures that while you might win sometimes in the short run, you’ll mathematically lose money over many spins.
Vigorish (Vig) is a commission that bookmakers charge on bets, which creates a negative expected value for bettors.
This means that over time, the mathematics of betting ensures most bettors will lose money.
Standard sports betting odds of -110 require bettors to risk $110 to win $100.
The vig ensures bookmakers profit regardless of outcome distribution.
At -110 odds, bettors must win 52.4% of bets to break even.
Any win rate below this results in losses due to the vig creating negative EV.
Real Betting Scenario:
Your $1,100 bankroll on ten $110 bets:
Bookmakers vary their vig between markets and events, typically ranging from 2% to 10%.
Higher vig increases the required percentage needed to overcome the negative EV.
For instance, a vig of 10% means you might need to win 55% of your bets just to break even.
Sports betting has a built-in commission (called “vig”) that makes it mathematically hard to make money.
Even if you are good at picking winners, you first have to overcome these extra costs before you can profit.
Read More – Top 10 Sports Betting Software Providers In 2024
Finding good value isn’t just about luck. It requires smart thinking, self-control, and knowledge of how betting works. Here are the best ways to spot and take advantage of valuable bets.
Smart bettors look for times when bookies get their math wrong.
Let’s say they price a tennis player at 2.50. This means the player has a 40% chance of winning.
But after looking at past matches and stats, a bettor figures out she actually has a 50% chance.
That’s a great betting opportunity right there.
Good bettors use simple math tools and past game data to find these mistakes, comparing what they think will happen versus what the bookies think.
The Kelly formula helps bettors decide how much money to risk.
Here’s how it works:
If a bettor has $1000 and finds a bet where they have a 5% advantage (like something with a 55% chance of winning that pays even money), the Kelly math says to bet $50.
But most smart bettors play it safe and bet less, maybe $25 to protect their money.
This way, a string of losses won’t wipe them out.
Sharp bettors pay attention to how betting odds change before a game starts.
If they bet on a team at 2.10 and by game time the odds drop to 1.90, that’s a good sign. It means they have better odds than most people.
Good bettors look at everything, not just who’s winning or losing.
They check if players are hurt, how much rest teams got, how teams played against each other before, and their playing styles.
For example, in soccer- if a defensive team plays an attacking team in the rain, the defensive team might have an edge.
Weather, referees, and how teams are playing lately all matter.
Some bettors don’t worry about winning or losing single bets.
They look at how they are doing over many months.
If they are winning 53% of their bets at -110 odds, they are making money in the long run, even if they lose sometimes.
They keep careful notes about every bet they make, writing down the odds and why they made each bet.
Clever bettors sometimes bet on both teams at different bookies to guarantee profit.
Here’s an example:
If one bookie has Team A at 2.10 and another has Team B at 2.20 in a game where someone must win, betting on both teams makes money no matter what.
They also protect their wins by sometimes betting against themselves later, especially with future bets that are looking good.
Focusing on an undervalued online sports betting market can be a great move that most people ignore.
Minor league baseball, lower-level soccer, or specific player stats often have better opportunities than bigger games.
For example, betting on Korean football games happening at 3 AM might be more profitable than NFL games where tons of people are betting and the odds are tight.
Many people who bet think they know what makes a winning wager, but they are often wrong about expected value (EV) betting. Let’s clear up some common mistakes that cost bettors money.
Many bettors believe positive EV betting guarantees winning bets, but that’s not how it works.
Even when you’ve found a great betting value, you can still lose.
A bet with a 60% win probability means you’ll lose 40% of the time.
Good value betting is about winning more than losing over hundreds of bets, not about winning every single time.
A common mistake is thinking that value only exists in underdog bets.
Value can be found anywhere, the odds don’t match reality.
A heavy favorite at -200 could be great value if their true odds should be -300.
Smart bettors look for value across all odds ranges, not just in big underdogs with flashy payouts.
While the EV betting formula is simple math, finding true probabilities is complex.
You need to consider team statistics, injuries, weather, matchups, historical data, and countless other factors.
Many bettors oversimplify this process and end up with inaccurate probability estimates, leading to poor betting decisions despite understanding EV basics.
Different sportsbooks often have different odds on the same event.
A team might be -150 at one book but -130 at another.
These differences create opportunities for value betting.
Professional bettors often have accounts at multiple books specifically to find and exploit these odds differences.
Even perfect EV betting can’t prevent losing streaks.
If you are betting with a 55% win rate, you could still lose 10 bets in a row– it’s rare but possible.
Understanding this helps maintain discipline during downswings.
Many good bettors quit because they do not expect or prepare for losing streaks.
Read More – How To Start A Sportsbook: A Complete Guide
Understanding EV in the online sports betting industry is like having a roadmap to smarter betting decisions.
It helps you spot good bets, avoid bad ones, and manage your money better.
While it won’t make you win every time, it turns random betting into a more calculated approach.
Don’t chase losses or bets with your emotions.
Instead, trust the math, stick to your strategy, and focus on finding true value. Combine good EV strategies with various bonuses and further expand your profit margins.
Make EV betting your compass but combine it with good research and disciplined betting habits.
That’s how successful bettors stay ahead of the game.
Yes, you can use EV for any kind of bet- whether you’re betting on who wins, by how much they’ll win, or special bets like player performance. EV helps find good bets no matter what type you offer.
Bookmakers use EVs to figure out what odds to offer. They look at how likely things are going to happen, then add their profit margin to ensure they make money in the long run.
Betting companies use EVs to set fair odds and protect their profits. It helps them run their business better while still making money.
EV helps bettors make smart choices. It shows which bets are worth making and which ones to avoid. They help win more money over time instead of just guessing.
Palak Madan is a enthusiastic writer at PieGaming. With over 2+years of experience crafting engaging content and a strong literature background, Palak brings a unique perspective to the world of words. Her ability to blend creativity with strategic thinking has made her a sought-after content creator. She's eager to dive deep into the intricacies of iGaming software, uncovering the stories behind the technology and translating complex features into compelling narratives.
In the online sports betting world, operators are competing fiercely. Turnkey sportsbook software are now helping to launch and improve their AI-powered sportsbooks….
Running a successful sportsbook requires more than just a love for sports and a knack for betting. It takes a conscious mix of…
Sportsbook bonuses are incentives offered by sportsbook operators to attract and retain players. Let us understand different types of sports betting bonuses.
In this comprehensive all-in-one guide, we’ll walk you through the nitty-gritty of all the details you will need to start your sportsbook from scratch.
Discover how white label Sportsbook solutions will revolutionize in 2024 and impact the user experience in online sports betting by offering rewarding functionality.
How to choose the best sportsbook software providers that can help you maximize your success with seamless sportsbook integration, tailored to your business.
Here is the list of the top 7 Whitelabel sportsbook providers that are reliable for offering compatible, ready-to-deploy, and affordable sportsbook providers.
Here is a comprehensive guide to Whitelabel sportsbook solutions. Discover the opportunities sports betting platforms hold due to boom in online betting.
See you in your inbox soon!
Stay ahead of the game. Subscribe for exclusive content, updates, and insiders!